July 2022: Toronto Real Estate Market Update

I’m not going to sugar coat it, the market is taking a hit right now. In this article I’m going to:

• Analyze the June numbers released by the Toronto Real Estate Board
• Share my recent experience’s and advice for buyers and sellers

Fair warning, you’ll see a lot of red in the tables below.

June TRREB Statistics

Detached Houses (Central Toronto)

Year-over-year detached home prices are slightly up (+1.3%) however, with inflation coming in at 8.1% in June, this is now in the red.  Earlier this year we were seeing 10%+ year-over-year appreciation, which illustrates the downward trend in values.

This is supported by month-over-month sale price changes, as we can see a -12.1% decrease in average sale price from May 2022. 

Number of sales are only slightly down compared to last year, which is very surprising considering June 2022 had the lowest amount of sales on record since TRREB started recording these stats in 2002 (more on that later).

Semi-Detached Houses (Central Toronto)

Semi-detached homes saw similar trends to detached in terms of sale prices–with slightly stronger year-over-year growth (+3.4%), and less of a drawdown month-over-month. But again, inflation.

The biggest year-over-year change is the drop in number of sales. -36.6% is a significant decrease. Semi-detached homes and condos are generally where first-time home buyers enter the market. First-time buyers are especially susceptible to the rapid increases in mortgage rates, and this could be a leading indicator of just how many people are getting priced out, or are waiting to see what the Bank of Canada will do next.

Condominiums (Central Toronto)

Very similar trends to semi-detached homes here. The major difference I’m seeing compared to semi and detached sales is that the number of sales month-over-month is fairly stable (-2%, vs -10.8% for detached and -20.3% for semi-detached).

That’s because the drop in # of sales for Condos happened last month, where the Semi and Detached market took a bit longer.

All of TRREB

Since TRREB started recording this stat in 2002, June 2022 was the lowest June in history for number of sales. That is not a typo, the lowest in history.

This summarizes the general sentiment of what I’m feeling on the ground. After three historically aggressive interest rate hikes in the last few months, buyers are in a holding pattern.

Sales are down across the GTA–Durham, Toronto, Halton, Peel, York–home sales in all these regions down anywhere from 30-50%.

With new listings only being down 4-5% year-over-year, this isn’t a supply issue, it’s a demand issue.

Toronto Sale Prices Fairing Better

Since the peak of the market in February, average prices in Toronto are down just under -5%. 

Durham, Halton, York, Peel? Between approximately -16% and -21%.

Central Toronto has held stronger than the surrounding GTA.

My Thoughts

I am not here to make predictions about what will happen in the market in the short term. No one truly knows what will happen. We are living through a historical economic period. A hangover from a pandemic where governments injected money into the economy, a crisis in Ukraine, record high inflation, and the highest interest rates we’ve seen since 2007.

Related post: Interest Rates, Inflation & Toronto Real Estate Prices

Based on current trends, more downside in the market is likely over the next few months, but I am optimistic in the long term. Canada’s population growth continues to outpace housing supply (we’ve had one of the strongest years on record), and Toronto is a world class city–people want to live here.

Advice For Buyers

We’re definitely in a more balanced market right now, and in some pockets of the city a buyers market, but that doesn’t mean sellers are just giving their homes away. If they don’t have to sell, most are choosing to hold and wait for the market to stabilize, or rent out their properties and wait to see where prices are at a year from now. This could limit supply in the short term.

In my recent experience, sellers that are motivated to sell are only just starting to adjust to the fact that their home is not worth as much as it was a few months ago. I’ve had some recent situations where sellers initially turn down my client’s offer, only to get a call the next morning asking us to bring it back to the table.

Sellers are willing to negotiate, including accepting offers with conditions on financing, home inspections and appraisals which is positive considering the current economic climate is also difficult for buyers.

If you’re thinking of buying and holding for the long term, this could be a great opportunity as long as the financials make sense for your goals. Sellers are more willing to negotiate, and the process is much less stressful right now.

My recommendations would be the following:

1. Do a deep dive into your personal finances
2. Figure out what your comfortable spending monthly to maintain your lifestyle without being financially stressed and to meet your goals.
3. Talk to a mortgage broker and see what is feasible with current rates

At the very least you will have a better handle on your finances, and you’ll be well equipped when you’re ready to pull the trigger. 

Advice For Sellers

If you’re thinking of selling, I’ll start by saying that it’s a complicated market right now. Discussions regarding timing, strategy and price are always important, but they’re even more crucial right now.  

All your options should be on the table including holding until the dust settles, or holding and renting out your place in the meantime (assuming you are comfortable being a landlord).

SIDENOTE: Our rental market is on fire right now. It’s arguably the strongest I’ve ever seen.

There really is no once-size-fits-all answer here. Every situation needs to discussed on a case-by-case basis because every area of the city is experiencing different trends in supply and demand.

(If you have questions, need advice, or want to talk about the shift in the market, get in touch).